Monday, November 8, 2010

The U.S. economy is feeling much better this quarter

Suddenly, the employment picture in the U.S. was slightly better than what has become known from the BLS release on Friday, which was an increase in employment at 151,000 in October. Combined with upward revisions to 110,000 over the preceding two months, it becomes increasingly likely that the labor market entered into a phase where job creation is gradually gaining momentum. Private sector employment rose by 159,000, and after reviewing an average of 132,000 over the past four months, which is broadly consistent with labor force growth (albeit at a stable level of unemployment at 9.6% for several months).

Another inspiring setting was a steady increase in hours worked across the economy (often very convenient estimate of GDP growth). In any case, this report does not mean that everything is fine on the U.S. labor market, household employment fell by 330,000 per month, and the average length of stay unemployed remains very high, close to 34 weeks. However, there were other good data, in particular the sale of auto, industrial and non-ISM, as well as selling houses, it appears that the economy is feeling much better this quarter.
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