Sunday, August 29, 2010

NZD / USD Exchange tool "punish" profiteers

Shopping Tools NZD / USD on Thursday showed that the trade is not only an uncertain and unpredictable, but ragged and very sharp. So with the opening of the trading day and until its closure tendency has been changed several times, and, with the full knowledge and bulls and bears, as it was not clear - who leads the market? And just to close the trading day could tell who was the victor. And the winner came bulls, as steam rose by 34p. Volatility is, in turn, was 106p. Open/Close-0.6997/0.7031. High/Low-0.7090/0.6984.

In the short term trend at the moment it is rising, as evidenced by the bullish trend basic trend lines and SATL STLM. But with regard to the direction of the line and the midline FTLM RBCI, it should be noted their obvious affection for the bears, which in principle is likely to be on hand only the bulls, as ...

Conclusion: At the moment, should search the entrances to the long positions, but after a bullish reversal line FTLM and midline RBCI.

Recommendation: You can buy above 0.7085, to sell - below 0.7010. (These recommendations - this is my personal opinion, and they do not excite to action ... for the actions taken by the trader according to the recommendations, the analyst is not responsible).

In the medium term, the trend apparently still downward. This tells us the direction of lines SATL and STLM, who confidently looks bearish direction. The line is crossed the line FTLM STLM upwards and is now trying to change its direction on the bull, which is probably happening. The middle line RBCI, who yesterday could not support it, today was extremely bullish trend, which gives not a small chance the bulls in advance. Channels on the indicator RBCI increased, suggesting an increase in volatility.

Conclusion: At the moment, it is desirable to continue to search correctional purchase.

Recommendation: You can buy above 0.7085, to sell - below 0.7010. (These recommendations - this is my personal opinion, and they do not excite to action ... for the actions taken by the trader according to the recommendations, the analyst is not responsible).

Support and Resistance in the trend lines and extrema of the last three days.
In the long term situation have not changed, while still rising, but it is only now, as if the pair did not grow at the current trading week, the trend likely will go into neutral. But it is still rising. And this tells us the direction of basic trend lines and SATL STLM. But the middle line and the line is RBCI FTLM confident look in a backhanded way, the result of which at the moment and was a strong downward movement of the tool. It should be noted the passage of the price levels that we're for it marked, and that it has reached a new level of 70-second figure, which is located just above the field in 50% Fibo of the growth of the current month of May 2010, which currently cost stopped and "rushing" up and down. The main trend line SATL, in turn, is still at the moment and a strong level of support which, as we all can see was breached, but the price to gain a foothold below and could not, that very likely could play into the hands exclusively bulls.

Conclusion: It is advisable to refrain from entering the market, or find your entry on the line reversal FTLM.

Recommendation: You can buy above 0.7085, to sell - below 0.7010. (These recommendations - this is my personal opinion, and they do not excite to action ... for the actions taken by the trader according to the recommendations, the analyst is not responsible).

Support and Resistance in the trend lines, as well as the extremes of the past three weeks.

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Saturday, August 28, 2010

USA: The situation in the FOREX

The U.S. dollar rose against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc but fell against some high-yielding currencies on Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke promised to provide further impetus for the U.S. economy, if need be. In the prepared speech at a meeting of heads of central banks in Wyoming, Bernanke said the Fed is prepared to support the weakening U.S. recovery, but said that would be taken any action. These comments provoked a rapid growth in the U.S. stock markets, which helped the euro strengthen moderately against the U.S. dollar, and New Zealand and Australian dollar rose by about 1.2%.

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Friday, August 27, 2010

Assessment of the U.S. GDP could be revised downwards

From today's symposium in Jackson Hole pv will the Bank of Japan? The main event of the day is a symposium in Jackson Hole, which set the tone for trading risky assets in anticipation of the weekend. For the optimistic U.S. experts in the field of macroeconomics and it was another endless working week. Despite the fact that, according to rumors, 7 out of 17 participants of the last FOMC meeting have expressed reservations about further action by the Fed, the market is positioned for strong commitment by Ben Bernanke. Unfortunately, we believe that the symposium Bernanke will not say anything that will please the "bulls" on risk.

While the media only talking about a second wave of recession, it is necessary to clarify one thing: in share prices at the moment is not considered a significant slowdown in growth, not to mention a second recession. In the short term upward correction may occur as a result of any positive news, such as yesterday's report on applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S.. A strong decrease in the estimates for U.S. GDP for the 2 nd quarter is already built into prices, and to really shake up the market will require data that are below even our own forecasts.

The U.S. Treasury Department held another successful auction this time, 7-year bonds worth about 29 billion dollars. They closed at a rate of 1.99% and the ratio of received and fulfilled orders amounted to 2.98.

According to the forecast, the U.S. GDP growth for the second quarter will be revised downwards to 1,2% (consensus forecast of 1,4%) with previous estimates 2,4%. The trade deficit in June increased more than expected, and business stores are replenished at a slower pace. The construction also declined, and in Taken together, these data suggest a possible major revision to 1.2%.

Data on applications for unemployment benefits were "better than expected, helping shares rise by a quarter per cent. Clearly, the situation deteriorates, if you fall to 473 thousand applications already causes an increase in the market. Nevertheless, the total number of applications continues to grow. Given the additional increase by $ 249 thousand, reaching nearly 10.6 million is 10.6 million applications for unemployment benefits received by every week! (Without correction, as an extraordinary and additional benefits are not adjusted for seasonality.) Risk that employment outside the agricultural private sector in August decline, growing every day.

According to our macroeconomic scenario, stock prices will decline and the fact there is a simple reason. In the long run will be observed relationship between GDP growth and revenue growth and, given that the estimates for GDP significantly lowered, equity markets will also have to revise its forecasts for revenue growth. However, this dependence is not linear, since profits depend on two factors (at least): the volume of sales and margins. Growth in sales this year and early next year will be weak, but the opportunities to increase margins is, but not so large as previously expected. Thus, the projections for revenue growth to be revised with current estimates in 1989 dollars per share for S & P500 index up to 82-84 dollars per share. This will lead to a decrease in share prices.

In the short term, markets will continue to decline, and we expect that today Europe's stock markets will be opened in a minus on 0,2%. However, be aware that any positive news could trigger the rally, as markets eager favorable news. Volatility will remain high.

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U.S. gross domestic product slightly exceeded projections, prompting impulsive demand for risky assets

The revised estimate of U.S. GDP showed the economy grew at 1.6% annual pace in the second quarter. This is slightly better than expected market professionals (1,4% -1,5%), but still significantly lower than previous estimates of the growth of 2,4%. Moreover, in the first quarter rate was 3.7% and 5.0% in the fourth. Notice how the melting rate figures. H. Rubin in an interview said that in the third growth could further slow down to 1,1%. The second graph shows the dynamics of real GDP-linked prices. It shows that the economy is at a level in the second quarter of 2007.

However, even in nominal terms, current 14570000000000. it is barely noticeable growth of the peak level of the third quarter of 2008.
At the same time, being better than expectations, the report sparked the growth of quotations on the stock markets, increasing consolidation pair of usd / jpy. Euro, as earlier in the week, noted the growth in the first few minutes, but then become apparent sale, do not release the eur / usd 1,27. Next week we expect all the same flight from risk, oppressive and indirectly to the euro, resumes, sending a couple of zone 1,25-1,26 by mid-week. The end of next week will be very rich in important news, and, apparently, will lead the market from the summer "light" trade regime.
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Long-term

At the end of each year, Saxo Bank publishes shocking predictions »(Outrageous Predictions) for next year - a document which contains the most unlikely,
unexpected and sometimes truly shocking case scenarios of global financial markets. This review is intended to predict the future in detail, and get investors to think and be prepared to act in critical situations.
Ten shocking predictions Saxo Bank »- an annual catch of black swans. The theory of "black swan, or possible accidents, explains the emergence and existence of rare, unpredictable and have the potential acute exposure events. In other words, shocking predictions of the bank - this is more assumption than unequivocal forecasts. The chance that these predictions come true, is not more than 50%.



Analysts Saxo Bank generally more pessimistic than the average financial analyst, and skepticism about the economic upturn since 2003. The bank believed that the financial system while not fully been cleaned up "tails", and low interest rates could lead to excessive speculation worse than during the dotcom bubble. Unfortunately, in 2008 confirmed their theory. While it may be, the bank has taken a frankly "bearish" position during this year, their view is that central banks in 2009 will continue to pursue a policy of low interest rates in a recession and falling consumer prices, as we see, turned out to be correct.

Saxo Bank believes that investors should always leave room for an unlikely, according to market developments, and it is a goal pursued new startling predictions that are part of the financial forecast Saxo Bank for 2010.

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Thursday, August 26, 2010

Forecast for Thursday, August 26, 2010

n the course of trading on Wednesday with the publication of a more positive macroeconomic statistics for the euro area European currency once again attempted to rise above the 1.27 figure. As experts note, the index of business sentiment in Germany, calculated by research institute Ifo, in August 2010. compared with the previous month rose by 0.5 points and was 106.7, whereas the predictive value was at 105.7.

Soon, however, the downward trend once again returned to global markets. It happened, as in the previous day, after the discovery of American marketplaces. At this time, investors disappointed data on orders for durable goods, which according to the report of the Ministry of Commerce, in July 2010. grew by only 0.3%, which was 10 times lower than the forecasts of economists, is expected to increase orders by 3%.

In addition, as shown by statistics, not the best turned out and the situation and the housing market: sales in the primary market in July 2010. decreased by 12.4% on a monthly basis - up to 276 thousand market participants expected the figure will be 330 thousand worth noting that such sales was the lowest on record since 1963.

The European currency was again under pressure after falling to 1.2607 marks have not been able to rise above 1.2679. Pound / dollar stabilized near the 1.5450 mark.

At the same time it should be noted that the Japanese yen, which has traditionally been considered currency of refuge, this time received no support from the pessimism in the markets due to tightening of the statements by the Japanese authorities against the yen after reaching its 15-year high.

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Forex Market News

According to currency analysts, Barclays Capital, despite the positive dynamics that AUD / USD showed yesterday and today is a lack of bullish divergence, because of which trade on the pair in the short term may be limited by the range between the 60-day moving average at $ 0.8780 and the level of $ 0.8945. Given the lack of recovery above $ 0.8950, bank analysts see no reason to believe the current growth sustainable. Currently, AUD / USD traded in the middle of the range of $ 0.8833 / $ 0.8916. Previous days pair closes above the 55-day and 100-day moving average at $ 0.8824 and $ 0.8826 respectively. Now AUD / USD should rise above the 200-day moving average, which runs at $ 0.8941. The current rate of AUD / USD $ 0.8879.

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