Tuesday, March 22, 2011

AUD/USD : Active buying continued the second week

Currency entrenched above the moving averages with periods of 144, 89, 55 and 34, which are now near support levels 1.0060, 1.0040, 0.9980 and 0.9930.
MACD histogram is located in the positive zone and above its signal line, continues to gradually rise, and thus sends a signal to buy AUD / USD.
Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone and is not currently provide a clear signal as the% K line crossed with a line of% D.
Because, trust only one clear signal is very risky, then as a confirmation that the forex market in a given currency pair is likely to worsen again bullish, we need to wait for the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.0120, which will open the path to levels of 1.0150 and 1.0200/10 (local max).
Resistance levels: 1.0100, 1.0120, 1.0150, 1.0175, 1.0200/10
Current Price: 1.0088
Support levels: 1.0060, 1.0040, 1.0020, 0.9980, 0.9965, 0.9940/30

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USD / JPY. Currency caught in a triangle

Exchange rate is below the moving averages with periods of 55, 89 and 144 (number of levels of resistance 81.30, 81.70 and 82.00), but slightly above average with a period of 34 (80.60 support level).
MACD histogram crossed the zero line from the bottom up, now located in the positive zone and above its signal line, but moves parallel to the axis of time and is not currently send a clear signal.
Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone and generates a signal to sell USD / JPY, as the% K line falls below the% D.
Because, trust only one clear signal is very risky, then as a confirmation that the forex market in this currency pair may be amplified in bearish mood, we need to wait for the breakdown support level 80.60/50 (lower border of the triangle), which will open the path to levels of 79.50 and 78.50.
Otherwise, bidding will continue to take place within the triangle.
Resistance levels: 81.30, 81.60/70, 82.00, 82.20, 82.50
Current price: 80.89
Support levels: 80.60/50, 80.10/00, 79.70, 79.50, 79.10/00

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Pressure on the USD / CHF has resumed and may increase

Exchange rate still lies below the moving averages with periods of 34, 55, 89 and 144, which are directed downward and points to the continued bearish sentiment, as well as the next resistance levels are 0.9080, 0.9170, 0.9210 and 0.9280.
MACD histogram is located in the negative zone and above its signal line, but once again began to decline gradually, and thus points to the gradual resumption of bearish sentiment.
Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone and generates a signal to sell USD / CHF, since the% K line falls below the% D.
Because, trust only one clear signal is very risky, then as a confirmation that the forex market in this currency pair may be amplified in bearish mood, we need to wait for the breakdown of the support level of 0.8960, which would pave the way to the historic min 0.89181.
Otherwise, we will continue to monitor the consolidation within the above mentioned price range.
Resistance levels: 0.9040/50, 0.9080/90, 0.9125
Current Price: 0.9022
Support levels: 0.9000, 0.8960, 0.8940, 0.89181

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GBP / USD. Currency consolidated in the field of local max

Exchange rate still is above the moving averages with periods of 89, 144, 34 and 55 that are near support levels 1.6175, 1.6140 and 1.6130.
MACD histogram is located in the positive zone and above its signal line, continues to gradually rise, and thus sends a signal to buy GBP / USD.
Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone and forms are not clear, but the opposite signal, since the% K line only crossed the line% D top-down, but not yet started fall below it.
The contradiction in the signals that serve indicators, leads us to the fact that the most correct decision now - to stay out of the forex market and focus on the next strong support and resistance levels.
There are two options:
1. Breakdown of the local max 1.6345 and growth GBP / USD to levels of 1.6400/10 and 1.6475.
2. Break of 1.6250 support level and the correction to the levels of 1.6210/00 and 1.6175.
Traders recall that today at 12:30 MSK. will be issued a number of important fundamental data for the UK:
- Consumer Price Index
- Net borrowings of the public sector
which will have a strong influence on the further developments in this currency pair.
Resistance levels: 1.6325, 1.6345, 1.6380, 1.6400/10, 1.6450, 1.6475
Current Price: 1.6299
Support levels: 1.6275, 1.6250, 1.6210/00, 1.6175, 1.6140/30, 1.6110/00

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EUR / USD is slowly but surely, updates the local max

Exchange rate still is above the moving averages with periods of 34, 55, 89 and 144, which are directed upward and points to the continued bullish sentiment, as well as the next support levels are 1.4030, 1.3980, 1.3950 and 1.3850.
MACD histogram is located in the positive zone and above its signal line, but began to decline very gradually, and thus points to a gradual decay of bull sentiment.
Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone and forms a clear signal not to sell EUR / USD, since the% K line only crossed the line% D top-down, but not yet started fall below it.
The absence of clear signals, leads us to the fact that the most correct decision now - to stay out of the forex market and focus on the next strong support and resistance levels.
There are two options:
1. Breakdown of the local max 1.4242 and rising EUR / USD to levels of 1.4300/20 and 1.4350/60.
2. Break of 1.4180 support level and the correction to the levels of 1.4140 and 1.4090/80.
Resistance levels: 1.4240/50, 1.4275, 1.4300, 1.4320, 1.4350/60
Current Price: 1.4215
Support levels: 1.4180, 1.4140, 1.4090/80, 1.4050, 1.4035, 1.4010/00

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Monday, March 7, 2011

U.S. labor market - still sick

A lot of what might appeal to a February report by the U.S. labor market: 1) the growth of private employment to 222,000 per month, almost exactly coincided with the published data of ADP and regular growth in the period between 2006 and 2007, and 2) the unemployment rate fell a little further up 8,9%, compared to 9,8% in November, and 3) Diffusion indexes of industry showed the maximum working set in 1988, saying that the working set is very wide.

However, although the labor market is improving, he still has big problems. For example, the level of the active population continues to decline, accounting for 64.2% already from a peak of 66,4% in early 2007. Strictly speaking, the fall in unemployment in recent months, with 9,8% to 8,9% due almost entirely to that previously unemployed people are leaving the labor force, and not the fact that people find work. Since September, employment rose by less than 200,000, while the number of unemployed declined by more than 1.1 million, largely due to the fact that 1.4 million people left the labor force. Over the past three years, these have already accumulated about 7 million now in America, 140 million are employed in the total population of 310 million, in other words, only 45% of the population are working. Not surprisingly, the U.S. is weakening.

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The Japanese yen rose against the dollar and euro

A preview of the trading session of the week, the Japanese yen continued to rise against the dollar and euro as Japanese companies are buying the domestic currency by fixing the foreign profits until the end of the fiscal year, which ends in March.
The European currency against the U.S. dollar started the week with a slight reduction, bargaining between the maximum and minimum of 1.3992 1.3961. Couple faces support 1.3945, while the full-time and four-Momentum indicate the trade in the overbought area.
Pair Pound / dollar began the first trading day of the week with a decline, bargaining between the maximum and minimum of 1.6263 1.6238. Couple faces support 1.6225, while the full-time and four-Momentum give sell signals.
The dollar / yen has fallen in the first four hours of the trading session, trading between the maximum and minimum of 82.37 82.13. Couple faces resistance 82.40, while the Daily Momentum gives buy signals.

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