Tuesday, November 16, 2010

The inevitable Irish trail


There is a feeling that emerges in the final game against Ireland a formal request for help from Europe, no matter how abbreviated it to be. Last night the Irish Prime Minister suggested that the EU should discuss the situation in Ireland, but he stressed again that Ireland has not requested any assistance. The involvement of Ireland in the salvation of the affected banks is what drives this crisis, but politicians say (and this is true), that Ireland is fully provided the means to the middle of next year, giving the impression that the administration does not understand the speed of change. Moreover, the Irish Cabinet will meet on Tuesday before meeting EcoFin, moving the budget discussions in early December for the week. Portugal also quickly falls into an abyss, not only because of the rapid changes in fundamentals, but also (to put it mildly) because of its comparison with Ireland, as investors prefer to get rid of all the peripherals market. This will be the main theme of the day today and tomorrow, and while the price of the euro to a large extent already included in the price of salvation Ireland, more severe circumstances may put pressure on the single currency. Now Europe is stuck, being forced to "save" the country (and, indirectly, Irish banks), and not being able to remove the line for funding from other banks, and being the sole buyer of the bonds of many peripheral countries (about 1 billion last week). In contrast to the results of the day today, Europe has made only one step towards solving one of the many domestic problems.

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