Friday, April 29, 2011

Spain suffers

Absolutely no concessions to the Spanish labor market, and today's data now showed an increase in the unemployment rate to horrific 21,3% in the first quarter from 20,3% in the fourth, and this was a peak in 14 years. And the bad news does not end there - the inflation in April exceeded the 3.8% y / y, and retail sales failed to 8,6% y / y in March. These data demonstrate the continued support of the intensity of fears for the solvency of Spain.

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U.S. GDP growth slowed

At a time when true love prevails in Britain to mark the royal wedding between the markets and the dollar, it seems, love does not remain. Lightly not have lasted up to the expectations of growth of the first quarter, showing an increase of 1,8% on an annualized basis, but the U.S. have nothing to be proud of. Consumer spending provided a contribution of 1,9% for the quarter, but the main obstacle was the fall in government expenditures (subtract 1.1%). There is still a significant inhibition compared towith the previous recent recovery ,and the labor market and does - very much . The biggest fear now is with regard to the fact that all the growth has been attained ultrasoft Fed policy. Take her away and will be a serious question whether the current recovery self-sustaining.

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German economic miracle


From Germany is now only good news. At least in economics. In April, unemployment fell by another 37,000 to 2.97 million, and this is the first time in 19 years when it dropped below 3 million unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.1%, compared to 8,8% in the U.S. and 7,8% in Britain. Expectations for the employment of Germans remain very strong. According to a survey the magazine Impulse, only 4% of employers planning to reduce staff in the current quarter. Some companies report that they are experiencing difficulties in recruiting the necessary staff, raising concerns that the narrowness of the labor market may soon turn into a spiral of wage stagnation.

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Hawk Hildebrand franc strengthened

This morning, the president of SNB Hildebrand made ​ ​several strong statements Swiss franc impetus to growth. In addition to indications that there are upside risks of price stability, he also suggested that the economy was more resilient to the stronger currency than expected. Hildebrand voiced fears that the country may suffer from high commodity prices, if the currency will plummet. In a relatively quiet Friday Suisse reached 0.87 in early trading in London.

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Thursday, April 28, 2011

U.S. Dollar at lows after Bernanke speech

The dollar declined against the euro to a minimum of 16 months, as Bernanke said that to determine the time for tighter monetary policy is not yet possible, as well as the program for redemption of bonds will end in June, which increased the demand for higher-yielding currencies.
Euro began trading today with the growth against the dollar, trading between the maximum and minimum of 1.4880 1.4784. Couple faces resistance 1.4900, while the daily Momentum is in the overbought area.
The pound also traded with the increase against the dollar during the Asian session, between the maximum and minimum of 1.6745 1.6642. Couple faces resistance 1.6825, while the daily Momentum points to trade in the overbought area.
The dollar / yen has declined during the Asian session, trading between the maximum and minimum of 82.25 81.60. Day Momentum points to trade in the resale.

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Weakening of prices for agricultural commodities

In recent months, we used to see the rise in food prices. In February, in particular, the index of food prices from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the newly marked record highs. According to this index, food prices roughly tripled in less than a decade. During take-off in energy prices and budgetary constraints, consumers in many developed countries lament a significant increase in cost of living.
The situation in developing countries, potentially even worse, especially in those which import a lot of food. According to the Asia Development Bank, in many economies of the region, the weight of food in the food basket is more than 40%, including Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. In China, food takes nearly a third of revenues. Also, for many reasons, one-half to two thirds of the acceleration of consumer inflation over the last year due to the rising cost of food - a fact that politicians in the region are paying attention. However, at the same time, higher prices of essential commodities to some extent a reflection of growing demand in the region, as it increases the middle class with more disposable income and wealth.
It is interesting that since the peak levels of space for decades, reached earlier this year, prices of some basic crops somewhat weakened. For example, the sugar has fallen off a third, while wheat, rice and palm oil fell by more than 10% of the peak. Of course, it is too early to talk about the spread, but recent trends are definitely gives you some breathing room in the rally.

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Consumer confidence in Britain even further weakened

It is not surprising to observe the fall of the index GfK in April to -31 from -28. A record minimum set in the middle of 2008, amounted to -39, while the average from 2000 to 2007 - is -2.4. Data once again confirms that consumers this year are expected bad state of affairs in the form of falling real incomes, the growth of necessary expenses and still unsure about the duration of growth in the remainder of the year, especially after yesterday's disappointing GDP data.


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