Eurozone economy is growing the slowest pace since the end of the recession, as business and consumer confidence waned and stock prices fell, according to the measure of activity compiled by the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) and Bank of Italy. CEPR and Bank of Italy on Friday said that their indicator of economic activity fell Eurocoin to 0.03% from 0.22% in August, dropping the fourth consecutive month. It was the lowest level since August 2009.Eurocoin indicator designed to assess the gross domestic product growth from quarter to quarter, with the exception of unstable components, such as seasonal fluctuations and short-term volatility.
"The decline mainly reflected trends in stock prices and growing pessimism on the results of surveys of consumers and businesses," - said the Bank of Italy and CEPR.
Euro / pound in European trading is under pressure. At the moment the couple kept in stg0.8680. As noted by one of the dealers, the level of stg0.8675 strike has now expiring option. Market participants believe that the end of the month associated with the payment of the EU the UK will take place during the fixing the ECB. However, the expected strong demand for euro / pound by the Bundesbank, as well as active selling the pound to the dollar model accounts. Interest in buying a pair of felt stg0.8670/60, and then to stg0.8650. The breakthrough of this level may open the way to move toward stg0.8640/30. The nearest resistance is a pair of runs on stg0.8740, and then at the 100-day moving average at stg0.8795. The current euro / pound stg0.8677.
The single European currency once again managed to find support near $ 1.3520, and against the background of the profit is adjusted higher. However, near the $ 1.3565 the bears became more active, and the publication of a weak report on retail sales in Germany has provoked a new wave of sales, resulting in the pair is trading now around $ 1.3535. Dealers say that while the bulls keep a stiff upper lip, but a break below $ 1.3520 threatens to turn into a more active falling euro / dollar, and they warn that such an event would entail the development of lower to $ 1.3500 and $ 1.3480, while below the last mark will have another series of pretty good stops. Ofer now appear in the $ 1.3550/60, further orders are placed on the Bears $ 1.3580, larger - on $ 1.3595/05 with stops above. Source: Forexpf.Ru
During today's trading stock index Asia-Pacific region fell for the first four sessions and complete the quarter the most significant decline for almost 3 years, reported Bloomberg. Statistical data from the U.S. not calmed investors' fears concerning the threat of recession, world's largest economy.
ROME, May 31. Inflation in Italy in May slowed down compared to the previous month, although it remained unchanged compared with the same period last year. At this point released Tuesday, preliminary data from a national statistics agency Istat.
LONDON, May 31. The number of unemployed in the euro area has not changed in April from the previous month and remained at its lowest level in six years. This is evidenced by data released on Tuesday, the EU statistical agency Eurostat.
ROME, May 31. The unemployment rate in Italy in April fell to 8.1% versus 8.3% in March, and 8.6% in April 2010. This is indicated by data published on Tuesday the national statistics agency Istat.
Nuremberg, May 31. The unemployment rate in Germany with the correction in May fell to record lows amid falling unemployment below 3 million, however, the number of unemployed has decreased with the correction of lower than expected. This is indicated by data released on Tuesday, the Federal Minister of Labour of Germany.
PARIS, May 31. Consumer spending in France in April unexpectedly fell. This is due to the fact that the fall in car sales and soft weather conditions have reduced energy consumption. These findings were presented Tuesday by the National Bureau of Statistics, Insee.
Trying to take advantage of weaker data on the current account of Canada's GDP and for the first quarter during trading on Monday did not bring significant results, and again met resistance in the C $ 0.9785, the dollar / Canada is once again turned lower. As a result, under the gun again supported in the C $ 0.9750, to assert that the bulls are not particularly sought, taking into account the frustration of the lack of progress in an upward movement in recent days and rising oil prices. Under pressure from the Swiss behalf couple continued to fall, and is now testing bids in the area C $ 0.9710/00. Dealers warn of the next series of stops around C $ 0.9690, a breakthrough which will pave the way towards the C $ 0.9645/40, and possibly even lower, although on the eve of the announcement of the decision of the Bank of Canada on interest rates, market participants are likely to prefer to refrain from aggressive actions. Ofer can be seen in the area C $ 0.9720/30, the larger located in an area C $ 0.9745/55.
SYDNEY, May 31. The Australian dollar has ignored published Tuesday weak economic data and increased slightly against the backdrop of positive developments in Greece.
FRANKFURT, May 31. Retail sales in Germany in April grew more slowly than expected, although faster than the previous month, when fears of an earthquake in Japan, and unrest in North Africa, significantly worsened consumer confidence. This is indicated by data released on Tuesday, the Federal Statistical Office Germany.
At the opening of the London session, after the three-day weekend, the euro / dollar reached a three-week high amid reports that Germany had become softer to the problems of Greece. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen actively sold after rating agency Moody's placed the rating of Japan to the list for a possible downward revision. Another significant fluctuation of the oscillation has a pair of New Zealand dollar / US dollar, which reached a fresh peak with the introduction of floating exchange rate, namely 0.8267 due to a sharp increase confidence in business circles. On Tuesday, the focus of the market focused on the consumer price index / CPI / May in the eurozone.
The euro / yen is trading at a higher after above 117.00 triggered stop-buy orders, said a senior dealer at a major Japanese bank. According to him, selling out the yen, coupled with the end of the month strong today as stock index MSCI going to withdraw the shares of a number of Japanese companies from among its members, and some Japanese companies offer mutual funds. Large-scale consolidation of shares in the Asian market is also supporting the risk appetite. But the premise of Moody's rating of Japan's "Aa2" to the list for a possible downward revision accelerate the sale of the yen, said this dealer. At the time of this writing, the euro was trading at 117.14 yen, after it rose to 117.28 against the three-week high reached before the minimum of 115.62. Dealer major Japanese bank believes that the couple later in the day will focus on the resistance of 118.00.
ZURICH, May 31. Indicator of consumption in Switzerland has fallen slightly in April, but still indicates a slight increase, caused a significant increase in the number of registrations of new cars and grew up active in the retail trade. On this data indicated UBS, released on Tuesday.
ZURICH, May 31. Switzerland's GDP growth in the 1 st quarter slowed, although exports of machinery and electrical products continued to neutralize the growth of the Swiss franc. This was pointed out on Tuesday the data of the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs.
New Zealand dollar reached a peak on Tuesday with the introduction of a floating rate after that, the poll National Bank of New Zealand has demonstrated a significant increase confidence in business circles.
Renewed economic fears on Thursday provoked the fall of currencies that are closely related to global economic growth, and support for currencies that are considered safe havens, such as the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen.
Professional analysts of the European Central / ECB / Bank significantly increased its forecasts for inflation in the euro zone this year. In their assessment, consumer price inflation will be markedly higher than the ECB target rate of 2%. Reported in the ECB's monthly bulletin for May, published on Thursday.
The Australian dollar came under selling pressure due to the negative surprise on the part of the publication of a report on employment for April. The unemployment rate in the reporting month, remained unchanged and amounted to 4.9%. However, data on the number of jobs frankly disappointing. Economists on average had expected that Australia's economy in April, added 17,000 new jobs. Actual figures are surprisingly reflected their reduction by 22,100 jobs. In this case, the March figure was revised upward from 37,800 to 43,300 jobs. "High oil prices, expensive national currency and fiscal problems began to exert its negative effect on the public production ", - said Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist and analyst at Westpac in Sydney. Yield of 2-year Australian government bonds fell 10 basis points to 4.96%.
Dollar / franc continues to demand dips after yesterday's report on consumer price inflation in Switzerland, and the breakthrough at the feet above Chf0.8830 can be a catalyst for further restoration of the original to Chf0.8850 and Chf0.8880. On the potential of such talk and strategists UBS. The bank report that took a long position in a pair of near Chf0.8797 with a stop at Chf0.8700 and purpose in the district Chf0.9060.
The Australian dollar has appreciated against the backdrop of growth in the stock and commodity markets on Wednesday, although the data indicate a high level of inflation in China, few have kept upward trend observed in the late Asian session.
The yen may return to its record highs against the dollar due to the fact that Japanese investors may refrain from investing in foreign assets despite the risk reduction occurred in the country after the earthquake. This opinion was expressed specialists JPMorgan Chase & Co. Junia Tenes, chief currency strategist, suggests that Japanese investors and corporations can repatriate about 10 trillion. yen in the current year. "Given the opportunity, the yen could resume growth as the traditional scheme of flow of money abroad will be disrupted due to the reduction in risk appetite on the part of domestic private investors and companies," - said Tenes. The expert adds that the yen will receive an additional stimulus to growth due to low demand for the dollar because the U.S., being the world's largest debtor in the low rate of return. "Interest rates should be significantly higher than in Japan. It is not normal that these two countries have almost identical close to zero interest rates" - gives his opinion Junia Tenes. The expert believes that the intervention of the Bank of Japan in connection with the strengthening of the yen seems unlikely, since the volatility compared to the period after the earthquake
The euro / dollar could fall in coming days. Consumer Price Index / CPI / China and foreign trade data signal that the Chinese government will strengthen the yuan at a faster pace, while tightening monetary policy. It is reported by a senior dealer at Nomura Trust and Banking Hideki Amikura. Data on consumer price inflation in China have been extremely negative for equity investors, "- he said. Amikura expect decline in European stock markets, and notes that it is closely monitoring the comments from the European Central Bank and the situation with a sovereign debt crisis in Greece. According to him, these factors may weaken the risk appetite and lead to a drop in the euro / dollar to 1.40 during the next session. At the time of writing, this pair is trading at 1.4386. The euro / yen was trading at 116.36. Amikura predicts that the pair may fall below $ 115.00.
The Australian dollar was trading with an increase against the yen on Wednesday against the backdrop of rising prices for commodities and stock markets. Technical charts indicate that the Australian dollar in the coming session is likely to rise against the yen to 88.50 and, possibly, to 90.00.
A pair of Australian Dollar / US Dollar has lost almost all won positions in the late morning after reports of increased foreign trade surplus of China in April, has filed a negative signal to the output in the medium even more important Chinese data. It is reported by Roland Randall, a strategist at TD Securities in Singapore. "Now the main question is whether China will raise interest rates, and if the background of these markets seem to happen, everyone will be selling the Australian dollar, " - says Randell. According to him, the key inflation data, which should be published on Wednesday, are a major risk factor for a pair of Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar this week.
Member of the Board of Governors of the European Central Bank's Ewald Nowotny said that Greece can get permission to continue their debt obligations to the ECB and the International Monetary Fund. In an interview with Austrian broadcaster ORF, he said: "It is expected that Greece will be able to refinance itself in the next year through the market, but now there are strong indications that this will not happen. " This information reinforced the concerns of market participants in respect of the Greek problem and the demand for higher-yielding assets decreased, which undermines the position of the single European currency. According to Mr. Novtony were another negative factor that acted as a continuation of yesterday's lowering the credit rating agency Greece, Standard & Poors.
U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen 80.36-40 80.46-80.13 +0.12%
Euro continues to fall in the absence of clarity on the EU strategy to address budgetary problems of Greece, said currency strategists at Barclays Capital, David Forrester and Yuki Sakasai. With the reduction of credit rating agency in Greece Standard & Poor's on Monday with investors intensified fears about how the EU will deal with the unstable dynamics of the duty of the Government of Greece, "they say. "A key factor in our opinion, is the uncertainty. While on the subject at the weekend there was a meeting of leaders, based on its results was not published any official information", - analysts add. At the time of this writing, the euro / dollar traded at 1.4334 against 1.4378, the euro / yen traded at 115.29 against 115.43.
The British pound rose against the Swiss franc in early Asian session on Tuesday against the backdrop of positive data on retail sales and UK housing market. Technical charts indicate that the growth of the pound may gain traction and a couple of pound / franc strengthened to 1.4511 and possibly up to 1.4598 in the coming days.
Observers of the euro say that a three-day correction of the euro may have ended.
Gross domestic product of France in the 2 nd quarter will grow by 0,5% compared with the 1 st quarter. This is stated in the released Monday monthly report of the Bank of France, dedicated to the industrial sector and service industries.
EUR / USD traded with a rise after data on German exports, which in March rose to record levels, said a senior dealer at a major Japanese bank. Since the negative developments did not occur in connection with the release on Friday reported that Greece is considering the possibility of leaving the euro zone, investors are "waiting for a reason to buy / euro, dealers said. The leaders of the eurozone and the Greek government categorically denied the information about the intention of Greece leave the eurozone. At the time of this writing, the euro / dollar traded at 1.4417 against an earlier minimum of 1.4367. Later in the global session, a couple can grow up to 1.4450, he says. The euro / yen traded at 116.25 against an earlier minimum of 115.85.
Flexitime for 24 hours:
The New Zealand dollar was trading with an increase at the end of the session on Monday against the backdrop of improved investor sentiment caused by the release on Friday, better-than-expected data on the number of jobs outside agriculture in the USA and the growth on Wall Street.
The U.S. dollar was traded almost change against the yen on Monday during the Asian session. However, traders in Tokyo say that the lingering risk aversion is likely to face the greenback to levels that may portend an intervention from the Government of Japan.
German exports jumped to a record high in March, demonstrating the growth of the second month in a row and signaled the continued strengthening of the economy. This is evidenced by the data of the Federal Bureau of Statistics, Germany.
The fall of the single European currency in the past two days been very aggressive in nature, but stabilization has not brought much relief, and the euro / dollar still very active in trying to sell growth. Ofer remain around $ 1.4400/10 and, at the time as a breakthrough at the feet of the above can support short-term profit-taking accounts and development of the correction to $ 1.4440 and $ 1.4455/65, while the tone remains bearish trades. Surrounding bids are seen around $ 1.4365/60 with stops below, larger - around $ 1.4340 and about forty-third figure, the loss of which would jeopardize the test levels near $ 1.4250.
Fear in New York in late Friday afternoon were not implemented; commodity prices rebounded from a further continuation of the war in Livii.Tseny oil goes up, the changes of the euro were not significant after a meeting in Luxemburg, as Der Spiegel saw it, and general feeling of market is positive with PMS and stocks higher. If this mood continues, it could give the traditional crafts of risk, such as EUR / CHF and AUD / JPY intraday another elevator once European trading gets underway.
Canadian Dollar at lower Thursday before the 6-week low, which occurred against the backdrop of falling oil prices and their negative attitude to risk in the global market, reaching those target levels, which were determined traders, opening April 22 short positions in the Canadian dollar against the Japanese yen by 85 , 90.
The euro is likely to remain under pressure against the Australian dollar, continuing in the near future to fall to 1.3560, and possibly 1.3460, despite the correction of the pair more than 2% from a peak reached at the end of the session on Thursday. At this point the technical charts.
New Zealand dollar in late trading session on Friday was down amid falling risk appetite, caused by the fall in commodity prices.
Course range change:
According to the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Narayana Kocherlakoty, increase in U.S. interest rates even once by 50 basis points would leave monetary policy is very soft. "Core inflation at 1.5% is still significantly below the target set by the Fed at 2%. Accordingly, building on the findings of our research group, we can say that raising rates by 50 basis points while keeping the balance unchanged FED will meet real interest rates at a level of -1.5%. This situation can only be described as very soft policy ", - said at a news conference in Minneapolis Fed, Mr. Kocherlakota.
A pair of New Zealand dollar / U.S. dollar weakened slightly after mid-day grew on the background of statements by the Reserve Bank of Australia / RBA / on monetary policy, said currency strategist at Westpac Imre Shpaytser. "Statement by RBA has caused a lot of excitement that has informed the Australian dollar a good momentum, and the New Zealand dollar followed him. " A pair of New Zealand dollar / US dollar traded at 0.7877 after reaching a peak of 0.7914 against the backdrop of statements by the RBA. Shpaytser said that the market's attention is now riveted on the U.S. data on the number of jobs outside agriculture, expected later in the day of the world.
Minister of Finance of Japan Yoshihiko Noda said Friday that he would closely watch the currency markets, saying nothing about the threat of intervention against the background of the U.S. dollar after falling on Thursday, below the psychologically important mark of 80.00 yen.