Tuesday, November 23, 2010

CHF: There is a growing feeling that we are entering a phase of risk aversion at the end of the month

There is a growing feeling that we are entering a phase of risk aversion at the end of the month, and probably before the end of the year. Events in Ireland - this is the natural factors, as well as developments on the Korean peninsula. For the Swiss it could all be a strengthening of the recent reversal in EUR / CHF, which ended with the strengthening of the euro against the Swiss almost 1% this week. Will the Swiss to move aggressively against the dollar, will depend on demand. Typically, in an environment of falling stocks and rising volatility (VIX index rising), the U.S. dollar ahead of Swiss, so we should see a more sustained impact on the shares to the Swiss was above parity with the dollar until the end of the year. Suisse played about half the decline from a peak in mid-September on a trade-weighted index, so that Swiss authorities will closely monitor the situation, noting that a weaker euro could cause far greater harm to the economy compared to the earlier period (August-October ), when the movement was mainly due to weakness of the dollar.

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