There is little reason to expect that during today's press conference, ECB President Trichet to soften the tougher tone that began to appear in his speeches a month ago. As data on inflation and on economic activity to justify the highest preliminary expectations. But we know that higher rates will not be welcome in most of the eurozone. Here in front of this dilemma and is now the ECB. Tune my under Germany, where employment has already exceeded the peak of 2008, and further pressure on the periphery, where employment is at 5% (in Spain) or 13% (in Ireland) below pre-crisis peak. Moreover, as the damping effect of a temporary increase in sales taxes, inflation probably will fall sharply. Slower inflation in the periphery (compared to the center) is one of the drugs from the lost competitiveness (in the absence of currency devaluation). An alternative is the assumption of higher inflation in the center, but the probability of eventually declines as the expiration Trichet. When in 2008 the ECB raised rates in July 2008, quickly became apparent that this is a bug when two months later was the collapse of Lehman. At this time it might not be so dramatic, but the risk of political mistakes can not be ignored.
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