It was one of those confusing reports on the U.S. labor market. The dollar initially fell sharply on much weaker than expected data on peyrolls, which showed an increase of 36 thousand, but the reduction of unemployment from 9,4% to 9,0% in late provoked that initial losses were more than win.
So what happens? So, partly to blame for the weather, which is quite clearly visible. Staff members who conducted the poll, who spend a lot of work on the main index, said that 886,000 workers could not get to work during the week-long survey. Impact on the final figures are not yet fully clear, but they certainly helped to reduce the overall performance (usually only 282 000 workers exposed to weather influences in January). It is not surprising that employment in construction fell by 32,000 during the month. And again: the weather's fault.
Such a strong separation of data on non-farm employment and unemployment are not unusual (given the completely different framework of data collection), but historically very rare. Another factor that should be noted, are indicators of ISM, which both came out very bullish this week in relation to employment. Without a doubt, these data will be subject to major revision, but revised to 18 000 December's value does not add weight to this scenario. The head of the Federal Reserve reiterated yesterday repeated that he will take several years to return to normal employment levels. Despite January's decline in the unemployment rate, you should pay attention to the magnitude of the oscillations of the main indicator.
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