Wednesday, January 26, 2011

USD:Americans are raised to the square of the budget war

Annual presidential statement on the situation in the country unexpectedly contained a farewell Obama on economic measures against the downturn in the economy and the resumption of investment and employment growth. Faced with this, it can easily be written off in an attempt to power-sharing with republicans, received last year, control of the House of Representatives. But even with this attempt to President to freeze the cost of neoboronnye industry, which will save about 400 billion over the next 10 years, many Republicans do not seem sufficient in scope to increase the debt burden of the United States.

Markets have not fallen to one another in response to a question; dollar and debt markets were firmly in place. They know that word - is one thing, but their implementation - is quite another. After a couple of weeks, the president will submit a budget for next year and start another ideological battle. Fiscal instability - this is probably one of the key risks to the dollar in the future, so this battle of ideologies can not be ignored.

Fed starts to fight with the bulls. Evening performance of the Federal Reserve does not represent any particular risk to the markets, but nevertheless, it is worth bearing in mind. Markets will focus on the (very small) probability of changing the parameters of the current program QE2, which the Fed has promised to reconsider if the economy starts to recover. Although the forecast for 2011 has improved (Bernanke expects GDP growth to 4% this year), there is a feeling that it will have little impact on employment and prices. Moreover, the Fed is likely to be very subtly change the rhetoric of his statement, not wanting to whip out that he was going to use phrase about keeping rates low "long period of time."


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