Monday, January 24, 2011

USD:A lot of data this week will be a test for the dollar

Last week of January will be anxious for release of U.S. statistics. On Friday, there is great potential for the unexpected revision of data for the 4 th quarter of GDP (the market expects an increase by 3,5%) due to very strong data on trade statistics and the strengthening of consumer spending in the fourth quarter. Orders for durables and primary treatment for benefits, are expected to be quite healthy on Thursday. In addition, the Fed Reserve will hold its first meeting this year on Tuesday and Wednesday. Do not expect any change in policy, but it will be interesting to look at the minutes published later, to see how the Fed has changed the tone in describing the recovery.

Yields on bonds and stocks are rising. It is remarkable that on Friday there was another increase, both in bond yields and in share prices. Nowadays it is not uncommon - in recent weeks was plenty of evidence showing that investors withdraw huge sums from the bonds and increase its presence in the shares. Yield of U.S. 10-bee-entrance reached 3.46% on Friday, adding almost 100 points since early November when the Fed launched QE2. A 10-year German Bunds on Friday touched 3.2%, its highest level in 11 months and adding to the beginning of November 1980 bps Dax Index headed for its recent maximum value since mid-2008, while the S & P500 as well to a maximum of 2.5 years.

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