Tuesday, October 26, 2010

EUR: Euro still prone to consolidation

Euro is still prone to consolidation. If we go back to the first break level at 1.40 (October 7) and compare the rates euro to its rivals, we see that the euro is in the middle of the state in which EUR / JPY has shown the greatest "slip", while at the EUR / CHF had the best performance (an increase of about 1.4% over the period). Yes, we have the political support against U.S. efforts to further quantitative easing, in contrast to the ECB, which is opposed. This is the balance in which the growing differential in interest rates for so long has supported the euro, but at some point, the effect that at some point can become overly restrictive monetary policy can begin to cause concern. In addition, although there is some sense of calm for the sovereign debt (if you look at bond spreads and CDS), investors also have doubts about the claims of markets that the worst may be over.

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