Wednesday, October 27, 2010

China's currency policy will again be in the spotlight

On the background of the dollar, it should be noted that the yuan has fallen more in just two years on this night. The People's Bank of China has identified Orientation bet on the yuan to 6.6912 per dollar, which was the highest level of October. Indeed, cynics might suggest that China is prepared to allow the yuan to gain a foothold before the meeting of G20, and now that the G20 is over, compensate losses.

Less cynical might think that China is making every effort to stay ahead of growing speculative interest in their currency, and that they may be concerned that their trade surplus will decrease rapidly in the coming months. In any case, the compensation of losses this week, no doubt enrage the U.S. soon. China is still annoying "uncontrolled" print dollars, judging by the statements of Minister of Commerce Chen Deming, that provokes inflation by increasing commodity prices.
China's currency policy will again be in the spotlight tomorrow when Asian leaders meet in Hanoi. Japan would like to see the activity on the part of China, but it must act with caution, because the relationship between the two countries are strained, and now a densely populated Japan is one of the few countries that control the trade surplus. Special attention this week will be devoted to comments the chairman of Bank of Korea Chun-soo, who described the capital controls as potentially useful in conditions when the economy faces significant capital inflows that lead to excessive currency movements. Indonesia may also be interested in strengthening of capital controls, as it tries to moderate the growth of the rupee.

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