Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Commentary Fed has strengthened the euro against the dollar and 1.33 to 41.30 rubles, the maximum in February


The single currency at the opening of trading today just flew upward, reaching 41.30, its highest level since February 17. This pattern is due to strengthening of the euro in forex trading after the Fed decision, but with the lack of growth of oil. Earlier, the dollar's decline was accompanied by the growth of oil that has kept the ruble against the euro. Apparently a single currency has the potential for further growth as the euro / dollar rate peaked at 1.3330, as well as six weeks ago, and before that only in early May. This movement is more than surprising, because the problems in the peripheral countries of Europe are valued investors, as more serious than in the spring (judging by the yield of state bonds). For this I am inclined to see the hand of China, therefore, possible and further growth of the single currency.

Let me explain. China is under pressure from the U.S., increases the rate of the yuan to the dollar while apparently losing in competitiveness of domestic goods. After all, the single currency yuan is also more expensive than a few years ago. China also actively stands up for the euro area, buys debts States, and diversifying their own reserves at 2.5 trillion. And actively influencing the situation with the currency rates. I must say that seems to follow oil for euros upwards, which is a bit slow the growth of pair euro / ruble. In my opinion, the last time we talked about the growth of the pair to 41.50. We will not give up this landmark.
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