Thursday, May 5, 2011

Risk aversion prevails after weak data on U.S. services

Much weaker than forecasts of the April ISM non-production data in conjunction with the bad data from ADP (see below) have led to flight from risk. Weak ISM report was a real shock, increasing the sense that the local economy in recent months has lost much of the growth rate. On the neck and received shares and commodities, gold dropped below $ 1520, Brent fell to $ 121 (early in the week a barrel reached $ 126) and the major European stock exchanges have lost 1,5%. By currency, Aussie fell to one point lower than 1.07, still largely due to the very weak retail sales in March, the kiwi has lost more than 1%, falling below 0.79, while the yen and Swiss franc are willing to buy. Bulls at Aussie preferred to reduce their rates - and these were many. If they at some point will want to leave the party, it will be a great crush.
ADP said that private sector employment increased by 179,000 last month. Number of jobs in the private sector rose in April to 179,000, according to recent estimates of ADP Employer Services. Over the previous four months, the average monthly increase of U.S. $ 212,000, so that the last data bit worse than average since the beginning of the year. Like last year, remains the main contribution to employment growth is making medium and small businesses. Also noticeable was the slowdown in employment growth in services. If Friday's payrolls disappoint, there will be another reason for the dollar bears to push the currency.

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