And although in July the European authorities waved the magic wand of stress tests over their banks, the problems continue to worsen: Peripherals euro can not compete, can not pay their debts and can therefore be pulled behind a very same banks that are ascribed to excellent health.
Economy Germany is growing at a rate unprecedented since the fall of the Berlin Wall. But other countries can not boast the same success, and this applies particularly Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy and especially Greece. Each of these countries are threatened by recession because of fiscal austerity and the debt burden, could undermine the banking system, local governments and the bond market.
Investors are plenty of good look at it - on the one hand, and on the other - on the program save a $ 1 trillion., Accommodating the IMF and the stress test results, and "voted with their feet: the average spreads between bonds of Germany and away from the eurozone countries had returned to values not seen since June, and continue to grow. 10-year Greek bonds now have a yield in excess of German, at 861 bp - That is, there are some places where they had been in May, when the might and main discussed the probability of survival of the euro zone in its current form.
The dynamics of Irish bonds also a concern - because the economy without debt restructuring is doing what and should - kill economic growth and asset prices, which were secured debts, leaving the country less able to service its debt and increasing the likelihood of more stringent default. Yes, defaults - just like chihi, some of them - polite and soft, and some may splash all who are not lucky enough to be in the same room.
The chain of interrelated events shows that although the leaders of the Central Bank in Europe, speak confidently about raising projections for economic growth thanks to growing exports from Germany, their actions show that they are greatly concerned by the situation.
On Monday, we learned that Anglo Irish Bank delivered a new batch of bad loans state bank "bad assets" - the National Agency for asset management - for only 1,38% of the nominal value. Price declined from the previous transfer and showed that even at this level of asset market is weakening, and the debt burden is growing - and eventually the government may prove unsustainable. Remember: the more money will be required from the center of Ireland, the less they will remain for the growing needs of Spain and Greece.
Shortly thereafter it became known that last week the ECB had bought bonds for 338 million euros - the highest since early July. On the bond market was a rumor (though not proven) that the ECB has bought Irish bonds in the amount of E60 billion - as investors began to lose confidence in Ireland and sold to the Irish paper.
"No Exit" by Jean-Claude Trichet in the title role
The logical consequence of this became sad commentary Axel Weber - the famous "hawk" among the incorrigible optimists. On Friday, Weber said in a broadcast Bloomberg Television, which would be "reasonable" to extend the program for unlimited lending banks in the volatile period of the year. In fact, talking about the end of the program stimulating markets and the banking system again relegated in 2011.
It's slightly parted ways with market forecasts, but it was quite unlike the usually cheerful speech Weber, and even in summer, more so - on Friday ... The explanation is only one thing: the situation in the banking system in Germany is unstable and requires continuous support.
Spain is also a source of concern: in June, its banks are occupied by the ECB 126 billion euros - almost twice as much in May. They need the money, because many of them were cut off from funding in the interbank market and have accumulated large portfolios of real estate assets, which they hope will someday grow up in price.
Reports on the activity of Purchasing Managers, published on Monday, only underscored the gap between the stable and unstable center outskirts of the eurozone. France and Germany feel bad, but the budget savings in no hurry to pull the competitiveness of other countries.
Here's the problem: Europe can not support their banks, pay all the debts will increase the competitiveness of weak countries, and at the same time have a single currency. This problem can not be solved by market confidence - even if it is somehow restored.
As the U.S., Europe decided that would not allow the collapse of their banks, and therefore adopted a strategy of transfer of debt on the shoulders of people, or taxpayers, if you want. Welcome back to their offices, respected leaders - you will find an interesting autumn.
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