Swiss franc and the yen are experiencing difficulties at the beginning of the month against the dollar, which is generally weaker against these two quiet marinas. In the pair USD / CHF move above parity for some time steadily, but he lacks confidence, as it happened in the past two trading sessions. More interesting pair EUR / CHF, where the movement yesterday below 1.30 should have been a short-term against the backdrop of the benefits for the euro on expectations of more aggressive (all relative) the action by the ECB in the near future, particularly with respect to the purchase of debt obligations. While the "risky" phase may be to the spirit of the SNB in the context of the impact on the Swiss, December has always been characteristic of the month for the reductions at the end of the year, so that the motion earlier this month does not necessarily last for the whole of December.
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Pressure on the Aussie night did not stop, and the currency fell to a new monthly minimum of 0.9537. Weaker-than-expected GDP data for the third quarter led to aggressive selling of hedge funds, and the recent lows - a direct proof of that. In addition, studies of industry there is evidence that the sector contracted third consecutive month in November. Nevertheless, the strong Chinese data PMI, which helped restore the euro, and later provided some support for the Australian. As a result, Australian rose by more than a figure with a night minimum in early trading in London up to 0.9650. All this confirms that there has been remarkable and consistent sell-Australian in the last month, partly due to the fact that the main drivers were covered by long positions and the dollar. Ossie can just go so its course. If this is true, then soon we may see some signs of stabilization in Aussie.
On the background of the U.S. dollar, who returned part of your positions at night, the pair USD / JPY went down to a minimum of 83.38, although, later, she regained some of their losses. Have not helped the yen and growing fears that Japan's economy heads for a new recession. Bank of Japan board member of the Court suggested last night that in the current quarter GDP decline might occur, but deflation is delayed longer than anticipated. In general, the pair USD / JPY remains outside the focus of the forex market at the moment, since all of it focused on the euro.
Pound pulled ahead after yesterday's break below 1.55, although, in general, it has a languid tone against the dollar. Nevertheless, growth is expected to be muted, at least against the euro, where we see some correction in the larger downtrend. As we noted earlier, the pound was trapped dominance of the dollar and euro, and all this will probably be in effect through December, even if we see a partial reversal today against the backdrop of the weakening USD after the November 5% growth in the dollar index. Housing prices, according to Nationwide, did not grow up within 6 months, which led to a fall to 0.4% on an annualized basis. We continue to expect to see greater volatility in the pound in coming months, given the uncertainty regarding the impact of fiscal tightening, together with the lack of clarity in direction of the Action Committee on monetary policy.
Today's game is speculation on tomorrow's ECB decisions. Of course, it is not expected that anything will happen with interest rates, but there are many other possible events. Main hypothesized FT, and it consisted in the fact that the ECB is considering expanding its program for the purchase of debt obligations, according to which, after starting in the middle of the year was purchased only a small fraction of peripheral eurozone debt in recent weeks. The idea is that they still want to sterilize these purchases by selling bills, so it's not at all quantitative easing in its literal sense, but more like an attempt to support the intense securities markets. Against this background, the first trading day of the month, the euro is rising against the weakening dollar, and the couple returned to the level at 1.30, even though, technically, the downtrend remains in a broader perspective. German retail sales also give a mild boost currency, sales rose by 2.3% compared to the previous month.
It was found that consumer confidence in the U.S. is growing slowly. According to a recent survey by Conference Board, a composite index of consumer confidence jumped to a five-month peak of 54.1 in November from 49.9 the previous month. Assessment of current conditions is quite horrible, waiting for employment also remain depressed, and the desire to shopping is still very much thought over. However, expectations of improving the last couple of months. Separately, the Chicago PMI rose to 62.5 in November, exceeding expectations.