Yesterday during the day the euro was on the rise due to have appeared recently about reports that Portugal and the EU reached a consensus about the terms of the package of salvation. Particularly pleased investors understand that the result was much more favorable initial request of the country. According to the agreement, Portugal will have to reduce its budget deficit this year to 5,9% of GDP and subsequent to 4,5% and 3% respectively (previously demanded the EU to achieve 3% by 2012).However, the mood was spoiled yet rather weak data on activity in the service sector and retail sales. The final PMI was 56.7 against 56.9 of the initial, probably under the influence has risen in price of energy and appreciation of the currency. And this is just the beginning. In addition, in March retail sales unexpectedly fell in the eurozone a decline in sales as the food and consumer goods. Taking into account the revised upward the January and February values, due to the March annual rate of decline was at a minimum with the November 2009 level and amounted to -1,7%.
So today, in the center of attention of performance Trichet after the meeting of the ECB rate. Let's see what the mood of the head of the governing board with respect to inflation dynamics. Despite the recent tightening of monetary policy, since Trichet has slowed somewhat aggressive tone, and yesterday and did the market there are fears that the June rate increase will not happen, given the pullback in commodity prices. If the press conference will be held in a restrained tone, it's definitely send a couple of euro / dollar to test the next support levels around 1.47. And the more disappointing the market, the higher the probability of return to the field of 1.4450.
