Universal negative against the dollar has not stopped, and after Easter, the dollar index broke through at least 2009 for the last few days, reaching a new three-year minimum. Since the debt crisis of the euro area in June last year, the dollar index has fallen nearly 17%. In recent days, and again this morning once again there was talk that more banks are selling the dollar, euro, Swiss and Aussie are the main beneficiaries. The single currency briefly fell below 1.45 during the Asian trading session, but later compensated for the fall dramatically to 1.4625. Suisse rose by 0.5% against the dollar to the level of 0.8770, while the Aussie stood at 1.0750. On the background of a weak dollar, the cable again lagged, and now it is trading at 1.65. Another reason for the decline of the dollar has become the relentless popularity of the Kerry trades: kiwi, for example, jumped another 0.6% this morning to 0.8040.
The fate of the dollar in the coming days will depend on two events. First, the Fed chairman Bernanke will give the first regular press conference immediately after tomorrow's meeting of the FOMC. He is expected to reaffirm their commitment to the ultrasoft monetary policy, although it may indicate that quantitative easing will be frozen after the expiration of QE2 in June. Secondly, the first estimate of GDP for the first quarter comes out on Thursday and is expected to show that the economy slowed to 2.0% from 3.1% in the last quarter of 2010.
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