Decision Mubarak in Egypt did not run for elections in September has produced a light sigh of relief in the markets, but met with widespread protests among the population, which wants to change now. Intuitively, one feels that it has some value. As we said yesterday, Egypt is now a shaky lull, and the feeling is now stronger than before. There are two reasons for the current instability. First, the transition from autocracy to democracy are seldom smooth (Iraq, probably the most recent example). Secondly, the impact of future stability is now necessary to consider carefully, especially if Mubarak moved and will step down before September. As Egypt has sunk from Tunisia, increases the risk of spread of such actions, from Egypt to other countries. Markets are not quite sure how to deal with this risk, but the scenario that they have chosen, the main impact will be on crude oil (above), emerging markets (more than suffering from the reduction of oil) and the European currencies (EUR and GBP), where growth rate is more probable. 
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